Italy 2026 outdoor forecast

The forecast for 2026 confirms a stabilisation of the Italian outdoor tourism market, with overnight stays expected to reach 68.36 million, marking a marginal increase of +0.4% compared to 2025. Following the sharp contraction in 2020 (-45.6%) and the strong rebound in the subsequent two years, the market has entered a phase of maturity, characterised by limited year-on-year fluctuations. 

From 2022 onwards, growth has progressively slowed, oscillating around stability, with minor increases and slight corrections between 2023 and 2025. The 2026 will align to this trend confirming a flat trend of the demand evolution.

The 2026 forecast highlights a continued divergence between international and domestic demand in Italy’s outdoor tourism sector.

International overnight stays are expected to reach 37.76 million, accounting for 55.2% of the total market, with a moderate increase of +0.7% compared to 2025 and a strong growth of +13.9% compared to 2019. This confirms the structural strengthening of international demand, which has not only fully recovered from the pandemic but has also expanded its weight within the overall market.

In contrast, domestic demand is projected to remain stable at 30.61 million overnight stays, showing no growth compared to 2025 and still below pre-pandemic levels (-9.2% vs 2019). With a market share of 44.8%, the domestic segment continues to play a significant role, although its relative importance has gradually declined over time. Overall, the data point to an increasingly internationalized market, where growth is primarily driven by foreign demand, while domestic flows appear more mature and stable.